World economy is not moving, needs a bit of de-oiling !

Economists are rattled as price has dropped from over USD 100 to below half that price for a barrel of Brent crude oil, in such a short time. The ponder is, where will it go from here?

Some may recall that the beautiful Columbian singer Shakira had sung a wonderful number during the 2010 FIFA world cup, the song was captioned Waka Waka. If she was to sing a theme song for the oil sector now, and trust me the industry can do with a bit of glamour, she would surely be chanting VUCA VUCA, instead of Waka Waka.

VUCA is an acronym for Vulnerability, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity !

The global churns have elevated, if I may, VUCA ( which has it's origins in the military ) to describe a difficult war strategy, to our peace time commercial world. It is used to describe the inability to cope with or predict almost anything in the context of global business & more so in the oil sector.

The past RBI Governor Dr. Y V Reddy had once said that "In India it is not only difficult to predict the future but it is also difficult to predict the past". That's because our data collection methods were always questionable then. However in the global context, in fact tables have turned & today India is at least seen somewhat as a stabilizing factor. On the other hand, the world outside of India has become difficult to predict, even in the present !

So did it all fall from the sky?

It is Einstein who once said that "The only reason for time, is so that everything doesn't happen at once".

It surely looks like it's all fallen out of place together, but in my humble opinion, the imbroglio was building up.

For the sudden drop in demand for oil & many other commodities, I am not referring to or addressing to the suspects like - the 8 year business cycle, the fuel efficient cars that have been entering the market, the soon to flow sanctions free Iranian oil or the challenge posed by the American Shale producers. Sure, they do add to the pain but I am going to list out the intangibles that have been silently building up that have led us here, to the sorry situation at hand.

The 5 factors that are undoing the global order are: 

A) De-globalization - It is said that before the global financial crises of 2008, oil was traded 30 times before reaching it's destination & price of oil which had reached it's peak then, was predicted to even cross USD 200 a barrel.

Since 2008, the world had never truly recovered. Data by CRISIL shows that trade used to grow at a speed, twice as fast as the GDP i.e. we had a frenzy economic activity and that dropped drastically vs. GDP in 2009 i.e. just after the infamous Lehman Brothers moment. Trade growth rose again briefly in 2010 due to the combined efforts by the leaders of G20 nations & yet again fell in 2011 to just match that of the GDP growth. Since then trade growth has retarded to just about keeping pace with GDP, from earlier being twice that of GDP.

It may be interpreted as the desire by most nations, not withstanding the promises made at the G20, to slowly shift inwards or sourcing more domestically to perhaps protect local jobs through imposition of both tariff & non-tariff trade barriers on imports. Also the losses in stock markets in that era may have led to a consumption behavior which was more need based & less speculative.

B)  Financial jugglery - Much of innovation had since last few years moved away from science & engineering & into finance. 

To keep up growth at any cost, practice of artificially low interest rates was followed by unbridled money printing as a reaction to the the financial crises. That had to bring in long term volatility. Today when the American Fed talks of increasing the the rates, it automatically infuses fear of money being sucked out from the global monetary system. Further, the US dollar also gets stronger & making it that much more difficult for say low margin oil producers to get finance. On the other side of the world, export dependant emerging economies have been engaged in competitive devaluations in currency, adding to the trust deficit.

On another level, country allocation are becoming less important & thus portfolio investments directed towards the BRICS nations lost interest in favour of huge unlisted companies or 'Unicorns'. Also disruptive technologies like the "FANG" or Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google took the shine away from the conventional industry !

C) Unprecedented wear & tear in democracy - All time high partisan politics among the democratic nations is not only slowing down even the most basic progress & reforms, but polarization across the aisles is leading to an unprecedented acrimony between political parties. The same haz been undermining the expected decorum in both national & international posturing & public discourse haz been finding new lows, hurting investor confidence that much more.

Of interest to those in the oil sector, so while out of sanctions Iran may soon be adding to the oil glut, 47 senators from the Republican party in the world's first democracy wrote an open letter last year to the Iranian leadership, that should they win, they might abrogate the deal made by the current Democratic party led US government & reverse the time clock.

Unable to demonstrate maturity through unity in the nation's functioning or policy making, the burden remains on respective governments to do growth spending, as even cash rich foreign & private sector investors remains weary. As if that was not enough, world over there is an anti-incumbency fever & so to retain power, populist trends have risen and financially prudent ones have taken a back seat, adding to the already stressed debt situation.

D) It's increasingly becoming a leaderless rudderless world - Over the last decade what we have seen is a financially bruised, war fatigued & morally drained America on one side & on the other side we saw a China - a supposed new rising leader, but with no followers. China began posturing aggressively with each of its so many neighbors it shares it's border with.

Notwithstanding the trade agreements, financial aids or sanctions that are arising more out of political compulsions rather than needs, even institutions like the United Nations, the IMF & the World Bank are being undermined. Thus today it is not only a multipolar world out there, but also a multiple opinionated world, with no acceptable leadership to set the tone right. 

Just note the unfolding of super complex relationships emanating from animosities or alliances in & among the different players like the Syrian Govt, the Shias, the Sunnis, the Kurds, the Saudis, the Arab league, Iran, Israel, Turkey, Russia, America, the Al Qaeda & now the ISIS - it would make any soap opera look pale. Most of the players are warring in hot or cold against or amongst each other with interests in & around the oil rich regions of the planet.

Even to the severest critics, all the chaos, at some level should make the OPEC unity of the past, appear more as an institution that waz made for stability rather than one that arose out of greed for petro-dollars. 

E) Last & the loudest is the free (mis)information age - it was JFK who once said that "The greater the knowledge we have, more our ignorance unfolds". He was referring to the space, but it seems, we are spaced out right here on planet earth. A recent PEW survey of leaders, on the 'Top 10 global trends' revealed that misinformation was among them & it is indeed a worrying trend. We will be entering our 5th year when about a 3rd of the rich nation youth now gets more information from the www that they tend to live in, rather than say from their parents, teachers, uncles & aunts.

Our opinions are becoming adulterated & popular trend driven & these then become pressure points on those that attempt to govern. It is said that if there is anything true about India, it's opposite is equally true. The same can be said about future market & pricing on oil, gas, refining & petrochemicals. All one needs to do, is to go on the web & the person will find plenty of editorials & opinions with adequate data points & seeming facts to predict that by the end of the year, oil will be at USD 20 a barrel on one side and USD 100 a barrel on the other side. 

The problems are not going to run away & definitely not in oil industry. In fact there is worry expressed by some, that just like the financial crises that had it's origins in sub prime real estate finance, the problems in the oil & gas industry could once again spill over into the financial sector.

To understand the pulse of the oil producing nations, just note that today the oil is trading at around USD 35 a barrel. A Rystad industry report says that the approximate break even for countries like Kuwait is USD 10, Saudi Arabia is USD 15, Iraq is at USD 20 & Iran at USD 25. Norway at USD 37 is on the edge. Russia & Venezuela are at around USD 50 are troubled & Nigeria which waz a rising star, has fallen as it needs USD 70 to stay buoyant.

The Indian economy is oil import dependant and so will benefit.

The Modi government's policy seems to be standing on 4 stable pillars 1) Make In India, 2) Invest in infrastructure, 3) Reduce subsidy or leaks in the system & 4) keep it clean. The savings in oil imports due to better roads & elimination of long transport vehicle queues due to GST at octroi collection booths or interstate check posts, will surely help some of that. The government haz already targeted to cut the oil import bill by 10% over the next few years. With the latest HELP or 'Hydrocarbon exploration licencing policy' on incentivising the exploration sector aggressively & in parallel raising the bar from BS4 to BS6 for emission norms, shows the government’s deep commitment, as much towards our energy search, as the environment.

Global oil & gas companies have all given a downward revision in investment & the mega players are likely to undershoot their capex by 15% but in India, ONGC has gone in the opposite direction which gives us a harbinger of things to come. In the short turn expect more brown field investments, shift towards down stream - those that can process high value Naphtha lighter products should gain. Refineries in Singapore & India's RIL with favorable Nelson Complexity Index are already benefiting immensely. LNG & so also regassification investments will rise. However in the long term, grass root plants will also come up.

Einstein had once philosophized that "A perfection of our means & confusion of ends seems to characterize our age" & on a global scale, that seems very much relevant today, with India being the exception.

In conclusion, far from making our's the best world, we have made it into a problematic PEST i.e. the Political, Economical, Social & Technological variables that are thrown up due to the global vagaries, makes it difficult for one to know what information is reliably valuable & what is just trendily in vogue. India being the saving grace.

Having said so, the wise man had admonished us against jumping to conclusions & instead had advised "Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted" !

It's time to stop worrying about tomorrow. Shri Einstein also gave us a clue on how to deal with our future & like an Indian spiritual guru, had recommended "Don't think of the future - it comes soon enough."

Que Sera Sera !