Tuesday, 28 January 2020

Order Order !


The peculiarity of the world is that they claim to desire Law & Order...well, that's getting it all backwards. 

In reality they pursue Order & Law. The world talks Law, but walks Order.

China is a ripe example of same & so attracted so much investment from all over the world in the last three decades, that its now reached a place, where it is challenging the investors. 

If there a lesson? 

Notwithstanding the demand for Law (functional democracy, policed IPR regime, contract enforcement agencies, mature courts, etc ), money follows Order - not Law. 

And so in the past, even tiny single party democracy like Singapore or Middle-Eastern kingdoms got more investment over a democratic India. 

Wherever there's political or otherwise stability i.e. Order - industry & money would move there. Sure, Law does provide that little bit of extra comfort, but only as a good accessory to Order.

America is desirous to "use" India as a counter balance to the widening Chinese footprint esp. as they themselves are abrogating their global responsibility.

They would through China centric trade war (read "Hot Peace" which haz replaced Soviet era "Cold War") want to contain China & nudge the American owned factories in China to move elsewhere. 

But where?

India has both - a potential market base & sourcing capability. 

It also has Modi to set the Order right !

Unfortunately, even as Modi's India tries to untangle itself from itself i.e the web of too much Law & bring about an Order, China has taken advantage & has manufactured a disorder here through it's proxies, including the terror organizations working out of Pakistan. 

That's because besides considering us as next emerging competition, on international forums, India has been vocally anti-BRI and not just the CPEC part of it. Unlike the Americans, we didn't even send in low ranking officials to Xi Jinping's launch of OBOR. 

China's economic growth rate is also at a 30-year low and costs are high. The OBOR seems to be sputtering & the America imposed trade war is now a bad irritant.

Industries are moving away from China to countries like Thailand and Vietnam, India could be next. That would be an irreparable ouch. 

It wants to keep India employed internally, so that we leave it alone internationally. And in that, it has smelled blood in the midst of the anti-CAA protests. 

So China knows well that unlike Tiananmen Square where it send tanks (afterwhich there's been no mass protests since 3 decades), India can't even send a team of policemen for investigation to curb the JNU student agitation, without the Law getting in the way. 

Law has the mesmerizing feeling that all is fair & equal. Well, to treat unequals equally is itself unfair !

Law is an ass, Order is a stallion.

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