Monday, 4 January 2016

Bolo Bharat Mata Ki Jai Indeed !



It is said that - 'If there is anything ever true about India, its opposite is also true'. Thus, India with it's vagaries and complexities & over the years bloated bureaucracy, is a very difficult country to govern. Yet within just 18 months under Narendra Modi, things have changed for the better. 

India is supposed to be a thriving democracy & yet like in a monarchy, most of the political parties that operate here are like family owned private limited enterprises. On assuming power, one of the 1st thing that Mr. Modi had done or rather undone was, he disallowed for more than one family member from holding a position of power in his government.

Before I give my assessment on Mr. Modi, it would be appropriate for me to tell you a bit on the kind of world that we live in.

The 5 things that are undoing the global order & society at large are: 

1) De-globalization i.e. due to the global recession, once again the self-centric trade agreements, imposition of non-tariff barriers and political & ideological alignments among nations is undermining institutions like WTO, UN & even the relatively newly formed G20.

2) Partisan political stalemate & acrimony is preventing even basic progress in many Democratic nations. 

3) Innovation in finance & monetary policy like Quantitative Easing in developed nations & artificially kept low interest rates, brings with it an expected long term volatility in the markets. 

4) China is slowly becoming a leader with no followers, rise of the ISIS brand of terrorism & it's asymmetrical ways of war and the American political fatigue gives no real direction to the community of nations. 

5) Last & the loudest - aggressive media, including social media today allows fastest distribution of misinformation & wrong influence and so compounds some of the above issues even more. Media, supposedly the 4th pillar of Democracy is severely compromised. Today it no longer reports, it takes sides. Let us understand this, it has transmuted into a profit making business, hence doesn’t deserve nobility. The "No news is good news" axiom was never more appropriate, than now.

Now coming back to Mr. Modi, for his supporters, I think - Mr. Modi is more of a metaphor for 'change' than a person.

As a student of leaders, I can say with conviction that Mr. Modi has made himself the national agenda, an entire government has been personified & rechristened after him i.e. now dubbed as Modi Sarkar. He still attracts the Indian diaspora crowds in different corners of the world, inspiring & energizing them to not only receive him with an unprecedented pomp & also spontaneously erupting into a ‘Modi-Modi’ chant in chorus.

All this, even when he belongs to the "lowest pedigree" i.e. is a politician vs. being a star in the field of sports, cinema or music. Mr. Modi is a rock star !

Suddenly India has arrived on the world stage & now every world leader is found to be accommodating to Mr. Modi's agenda !

His rise is half the story, where he started from, gives the true picture & I am not even talking of the fact that he is the son of road-side tea seller.

His vilification by the Indian media, including by reputed international & otherwise sanguine sounding magazines like The Economist, who did not endorse him - had an unprecedented impact. They painted Mr. Modi as an Islamophobic individual & that even influenced the mighty America - who wrongly banned an elected representative, untried in any court, the Chief Minister of an important state of India from entering into America ( for the record, Mr. Modi is now found cent percent innocent ). The national & regional parties that were traditionally opposed to each other, had singled him out & had launched a united front against this man.

Today the Modi-man is on the top of the world & screaming - Bharat Mata Ki Jai.

As if being led by the conductor of an orchestra - the rating agencies, the IMF & World Bank are all echoing his words in unison. They are viewing India as an upward moving nation. Obama penned a note on the Modi-man, in the world famous TIME magazine.

Till 2008, 114 nations were growing at a rate of 5% plus, today less than a one handful are. With such strong head winds, India turning around as a country with the highest large-nation growth rate, is a miracle in itself.

GDP growth which was retarding for last 5 years & is now moving in the opposite direction - inflation is tamed, including on non-oil dependent items; fiscal deficit is brought under control; forex reserves have risen to an all time high & balance of payment situation is comfortable; unlike most currencies that have tumbled against the American dollar, the Indian rupee has relatively held ground; natural assets are being sold through auction in the most transparent manner & are fetching higher than expected revenue; there is direct transfer of cash to the account of the qualified poor; e-Governance is finally taking shape to reduce procedures, hurdles & middle men; and among other things, corruption as a national menace, has been dealt with a severe blow !

There is an expectation from the Modi-fied government & managing that can be a deemed 'problem of the plenty'. However, contrast that with the fact that, till recently, most felt that they must attempt to grow in spite of & not because of the government.

It is sad that the media is focusing more of what is yet to be done, rather than the wonderful work in progress. The focus of the media is also so naive.

Are the foreign trips' duration important or what he achieved in those trips more important?  Besides huge FDI investment line up, MOUs for unfettered uranium supply, technology to make fighter planes & nuclear reactor in India are just some of the achievements that Mr. Modi made. In fact, he has done more than what any expert commentator had predicted before the trip & still remains absolutely unpredictable - his suddenly landing in Pakistan to wish the PM there on his birthday, being the latest coup.

The media accuses Mr. Modi of being a one-man-band who chokes his ministers. In the UPAs scam era, we had so many self-appointed PMs that called their own shots in contempt of the PMO and the real PM himself was one remote controlled mute spectator. Now when I listen to the likes of say, Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley, Suresh Prabhu, Venkaiah Naidu, Piyush Goyal, Smriti Irani, Ravi Shankar Prasad, etc, they talk of Mr. Modi with so much reverence - I wonder on the media's motive. 

While business balance sheets were already too stressed from past era's permission pains & delays & so many projects are stalled. Banks are not in a position to lend them more due to past defaults. Here too, the government is trying to resolve the issues. Mr. Modi's handicap is that he does not have the numbers in the Rajya Sabha to pass bills & Congress has fallen so low, that it has nothing to lose. It has coalesced with former enemies to block the most essential GST & Land Acquisition bills, both required for new jobs to go on the ground & foreign investments to go off the ground. The same too shall be resolved as such unity among opposition members for a poor cause seldom lasts.

Finally, contrary to the RaGa-baba's claim & backed by media created perception that it's a "suit boot ki sarkar"; the cash rich business houses, are learning to go through the slow but sure due diligence process by this regime, as under table "speed money" is becoming worthless.

Have faith, be patient - India under Mr. Modi will do you proud. Not one or two years, Modi Sarkar is working for the next decade.

BTW, not withstanding the media's adulterated agenda, Mr. Modi is still among the most popular world leaders and according to a recent survey, he enjoys over 70 % popular rating within India.

Bolo Bharat Mata Ki Jai Indeed !

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